Roger Hannigan Gilson has an article of interest today in the Times Union: "Hudson Valley continues decades long population slide after brief pandemic bump." The article provides this information specifically about Columbia County:
In the northern Hudson Valley, income gains occurred even as population declined, because those moving in tended to earn more than those leaving. In Columbia County, for example, new residents between 2019 and 2021 reported average household incomes of about $166,100, compared to $68,800 for those who moved out--roughly 240% higher.
That gap narrowed in the most recent data. Households moving into Columbia County reported average incomes of $114,885, while those leaving earned $95,936.
For readers without a digital subscription to the TU or interested in the actual report:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.pattern-for-progress.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/PfP-Migration-Report-2026-Final.pdf
Thank you so much for sharing this link. I wonder how different the numbers would look without covid occurring.
ReplyDeleteThis report was apparently compiled from tax returns filed in 2023, which means it only reflects moves through the end of 2022. So it's interesting, but hardly timely. If I want to find out about migration to our region last year, I will have to wait until April 2029.
ReplyDeleteThose numbers struck me as maybe lagging behind what I would have expected. It's implying that the growth of higher-income earners flowing in peaked in 2021. I'd think they were still going up for a couple more years. There was a whole cohort during Covid that didn't realize there was an opening to move away from the city till maybe 2022.
DeleteThat aside, the report outlines things we sort of knew already: Bunch of wealthy people moving in, thus a rise in property values and prices.
I wonder if and how things would be different if there were higher-paying jobs available in the county. I reckon it would increase the chances that long-timers could hold on to their property and that those moving in wouldn't already be apriori wealthy.
Lost in the noise is something that did surprise me: Some counties south of Columbia (Rockland every year, but also Westchester at times) had poorer people move in and wealthier ones move out. I wonder what's up with that.
People move. The world changes. Not new.
ReplyDeleteScientists call this diffusion. Economists call it geo-arbitrage, economic migration... or just for fun look up Tiebout Sorting ("Voting with Your Feet")
The centurylong trend of New Yorkers / East Coasters moving to sunnier, lower tax, higher opportunity places continue. No surprise.
Columbia County residents move to less expensive counties to the north and west, and other lower tax states, to the south. The young, wisely, move to cities for opportunity.
And higher income Manhattan / Westchester / CA residents move to Columbia County because, given their origin point, it is relatively less expensive and the coffee is top shelf.
Western European middle class and retirees move to the Adriatic or Bulgaria. Brits move to the Antipodes.
The lesson here for Columbia County is to lower taxes, build more housing, and demand better schools so that families get value for their tax dollars.
Are the residents frustrated by this trend, doing anything to:
- limit the HCSD budget explosion that makes Hudson unaffordable for the working and senior class?
- taking Mayor Ferris to task for his "raise taxes" in NY moves, or
- asking why our City of Hudson Youth Center gets 3x the budget ($800k+) of the Hudson Fire Department ($250k)?
- or voting out Board of Supervisors who grow the County government?
Which of the 5 City of Hudson Board of Supervisors ran / are running, on a platform to lower taxes?
(Berkshire County removed their county government, and Dutchess County is more tax efficient, both do just fine).
https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/domestic-migration-and-state-tax-policy-0#