Within the past hour, the Board of Elections has published some slightly different numbers, apparently because more ABS (absentee), AFF (affidavit), and/or EVMB (early voting mail-in ballot?) have been counted. Since yesterday, Joe Ferris has picked up 6 more votes, and Kamal Johnson has added 8. The numbers now are Ferris: 947 and Johnson: 892. Ferris is still winning by 55 votes.
If there were, in fact, 88 uncounted absentee ballots before this lot, Joe needs only 10 to make it official.
ReplyDeleteUnless there are a slew of late-delivered (to the BoE) absentee ballots, it's nearing a mathematical certainty that Kamal has lost.
ReplyDeleteThe Hudson Wail called it before Albany news did the night of the election.
ReplyDeleteThe turkey will be awarded to the best prediction right after the BOE certifies... there are 3 people who called it almost perfectly and it will come down to decimal points.
Not the election (that is clear), the winner of the first annual Hudson Election Prediction Competition:
https://www.hudsoncommonsense.com/2025prediction
Way back in 2012 I posted on my site a formula for computing how many absentee votes a candidate who is trailing needs to pull ahead and prevail:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sampratt.com/sam/elections-voting-rights/page/5/index.html
The formula is:
W = [ (a+m) / 2 ] +1
Where:
W = number needed to win by one vote
a = number of absentees outstanding
m = margin of victory on the machine
If the number of absentees left is now 88, as reported, with a gap of 57 votes between the candidates, the formula yields:
W = [ (88 + 55) / 2 ] = [ 143 / 2 ] + 1 = 71.5 + 1 = 72.5
Here, the magic number can be rounded down to Johnson needing 72 of 88 remaining absentees:
So that would give Johnson 964 (72 + 892) and Ferris 963 (947 + 16).
72 / 88 = 81.82%
The chance of Johnson getting 82% of the absentees — more than 4 out of 5 — is close to zero, when he only got about 46% of the votes already tallied.
(In my experience, absentees rarely if ever differ more than +/- 5% in either direction from the machine vote, unless something very very strange were going on.)