Monday, May 30, 2022

Prepare for August 23

As noted before, a couple things will be happening on August 23. First, there is the special election to determine who will finish out Antonio Delgado's term and represent NY19 in Congress for the rest of the year. The candidates in the special election are Pat Ryan, Ulster County Executive (Democrat), and Marc Molinaro, Dutchess County Executive (Republican). 

Also, on August 23, there is the congressional primary to determine the candidates who will be on the ballot in November to represent the newly redrawn NY19 in Congress beginning in January 2023.

Last week, Gossips was aware of two candidates vying to be the Democrat candidate: Ọṣun Zotique
 and Jamie Cheney  

Since last week, Gossips has learned of a third candidate: Josh Riley, who lives in Ithaca, at the other end of the 19th Congressional District. You can learn about Riley here

Also of relevance to this primary race, over the weekend, Assemblymember Didi Barrett endorsed Cheney with this statement:
"I am pleased to endorse Jamie Cheney for Congress because she will be a fresh and strong voice for our rural New York State communities in Washington," said Assemblymember Didi Barrett. "As a mom with school-age kids, a farmer, a small business owner, Jamie has the knowledge, experience and commitment to fight for the working people and upstate communities of CD 19 and we need her leadership now more than ever."

1 comment:

  1. Oh the tangled webs we weave. Pat Ryan (southern Ulster) and Marc Molinaro (the Republican, northern Dutchess), both live in NY-19 as currently configured for the special election given Delgado's resignation. Win or lose, Pat Ryan plans to run in the vacant NY-18 where he will live under the new lines, as opposed to the existing lines. Neither Molinaro or Cheney (who also lives in Northern Dutchess), live in the reconfigured NY-19, the district that they both plan to run in for the regular election. Josh Riley, in the far Western part of the new NY-19, who does not live in NY-19 now, will under the new lines. Cheney owns and lives on a high end cattle farm so she is unlikely to move into NY-19 to either run or serve, but that is not legally required. Molinaro may or may not move to run or serve.

    Since the center of gravity of population for NY-19 is now in the west end of the district in Ithaca and Binghamton and not in Columbia-Greene and the northern sliver of Ulster (even Kingston is excised), and Cheney does not even live in the district, I suspect that 1) Molinaro will win the special election and run in the General as the "incumbent" 2) Pat Ryan while losing his race for NY-19, will have a reasonable shot of winning NY-18 in the regular election (the seat is Democratic enough (barely) to give him a very slight edge), Cheney will lose to Josh Riley in the Democratic primary for the regular election, and the then incumbent Marc Molinaro and Josh Riley will face off in November for NY-19, which will be one of the marquee races in the nation, on which about 15 to 20 million will be spent, and it will be quite close, with Molinaro having the edge (particularly if he is the then "incumbent"), but not that much of one.

    If the above does not thoroughly confuse everyone (which was the goal here), then I simply didn't try hard enough, and apologize in advance.

    Oh, one other thing. The lines were drawn to make the landscape as hospitable as possible for moderates to run and win, with a huge number of quite competitive seats (NY- 1,2,3,17,18,19,22, plus NY-4 and 11 at the margins). And with that, I find great favor. Dr. Jonathan Cervas did a great job in drawing the lines, and his map overall is actually quite aesthetically beautiful to look at, with the absolute minimum number of county and municipal splits. NYS law also needs a revamp when it comes to redistricting. What happened was a most embarrassing circus act, and the Democrats got handed their hat, which is what they deserved.