What's Really Happening?

Today at 3 p.m., the Columbia County Department of Health reported three new cases of COVID-19, after a day that saw one new case, preceded by two days in which there were no new cases. At around 6:30 p.m., the following press release appeared on Robert Lagonia's Facebook page. Lagonia, who is the supervisor for Austerlitz, chairs the Health and Human Services Committee of the Columbia County Board of Supervisors.

SPIKE IN LOCAL POSITIVE CASES A CONCERN

The recent uptick in positive corona virus tests in northern Columbia County has sounded alarm bells in county leadership, raising concerns that a large-scale spread may be in the offing if individuals fail to take the appropriate measures to combat the virus's spread.

Columbia County Department of Health Director Jack Mabb said Monday that "clusters are popping up--we hope it stays that way and doesn't develop into something larger. We'll see how things look following the July 4 weekend. There were a lot of backyard gatherings at which social distancing and mask wearing was not practiced.

"We see the rise in COVID-19 infections happening around the country, and we all need to remain mindful that while things have been relatively stable in the county and the state, a new major outbreak could occur at any time. And testing remains a critical part of helping to contain the virus," Director Mabb added.

Director Mabb noted that the county DOH receives daily complaints about businesses that are not enforcing mask-wearing and other measures among their staff. To report violations of health and safety restrictions and requirements for businesses, gatherings and individuals, visit the following website: http://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/home

According to the NYS Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Services, there has been a continued uptick in the percentage of positive COVID-19 test results around the state. For example, last Wednesday, 3,163 tests conducted resulted in 37 positive cases, for a positive rate of 1.17 percent. This marks the first time there have been consecutive days where the positive rate percentage was above 1.0 since June 1 and 2.

"All of us must remain vigilant," said county Board of Supervisors Chairman Matt Murell. "We see people who don't seem to understand the extremely contagious nature of this virus until they or someone they know contract it. There's no use to be in denial about the dangers of the coronavirus."

Chairman Murell issued a warning about the economic devastation that awaits if another lockdown were to become necessary around the state: "For us to go backwards now would amount to a total disaster. The first time around was bad enough, but we simply cannot afford to shut down again. We would see restaurants and other businesses close for good. It's up to every individual to follow the CDC-issued steps to practice social distancing, mask-wearing, and hand washing. Remember, it could only take one asymptomatic case to become a potential super-spreader."

I don't take issue with the warnings and the urging to be vigilant, but, as someone who monitors the numbers coming from the Columbia County Department of Health every day, I have to wonder what they are calling an uptick and where the "clusters popping up," of which Mabb speaks, are happening. Do three new cases in the past twenty-four hours constitute an "uptick"? In the past week, according to CCDOH statistics, there were ten new cases in all of Columbia County: three were in Greenport, two in Hudson, and the other five were scattered about the county--only two in northern Columbia County: one in New Lebanon and one in Chatham. Do two or three cases constitute a cluster? 

So far, no statistics released by the CCDOH seem to indicate an uptick anywhere in the county, but maybe tomorrow's numbers will tell a different story. Of course, if there is a significant increase in the number of positive cases, we'll have to wait until Friday to find out where those new cases are.

In the meantime, wear a mask and keep your distance.