Eleven Days in May

In his daily COVID-19 briefing, Governor Andrew Cuomo noted that the current PAUSE order expires on May 15--eleven days from now--and announced that on May 15 regions can start to reopen, provided they meet certain criteria. The regions are the ten Economic Development Regions the state is divided into. Columbia County is part of the Capital District Region.

Cuomo outlined the core factors that will determine when a region can reopen:

• number of new infections
• healthcare capacity
• diagnostic testing capacity
• contact tracing capacity

For new infections, there must be at least a fourteen-day decline in hospitalizations and deaths on a three-day rolling average. For regions that have not seen a huge number of cases, there cannot be more than fifteen new cases and five new deaths on a three-day rolling average. There must be fewer than two new COVID patients a day for 100,000 residents. (For Columbia County, that's 1.26 new COVID patients a day.)

In terms of healthcare capacity, 30 percent of hospital and ICU beds must be available for COVID patients. Hospitals must have a 90-day supply of PPE (personal protective equipment)--a 90-day supply, using it at the rate they have been using it in treating COVID-19 patients.

On diagnostic testing, the requirement is having 30 tests for every 1,000 residents each month. As we learned yesterday, with 2,000 tests, Columbia County is good for a month. (The monthly requirement for the county's 63,000 residents is 1,890.)

Regarding tracing, thirty contact tracers--people who trace the people that someone who tests positive for COVID-19 has come in contact with--are needed for every 100,000 residents. In Columbia County, with its 63,000 residents, nineteen tracers will be needed.    

Here's how the ten regions stand now. Although it's impossible to read the white type on gold, it seems the Capital Region doesn't have its rate of new infections under control (first column) and doesn't have its tracing network in place (sixth column).

When a region is ready to start reopening, the reopening will happen in phases and in this order.

Phase 1:  Construction, manufacturing, and select retail that can offer curbside pickup

Phase 2:  Professional services, finance and insurance, retail, administrative support, real estate and rental leasing

Phase 3:  Restaurants and hotels

Phase 4:  Arts, entertainment, recreation; and education

We may be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. In the meantime, stay home, and when you must go out, keep your distance and wear a mask.
COPYRIGHT 2020 CAROLE OSTERINK